I think it would still depend on several factors. Like the size of the cluster and the effect the hive setup(number of boxes, 8 or 10 frame, hive material 3/4" wood, 1.5" wood or polystryrene) I think a lot would depend on retention of heat from the cluster within the hive. ie a large cluster in a beemax can probably maintain cluster temp and mobility in colder outside temps than a small cluster in 3/4" 10 frame lang equipment.