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Author Topic: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'  (Read 5647 times)

Offline CoolBees

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #140 on: April 29, 2020, 05:55:54 pm »
Just watched the Ingram Angle Cool. Yes on Fox News. Your state of 45 Million has lost 1,776 lives. (If reported correctly). This is tragic and sad for each life lost, for each family that has suffered. So sad, if we picture each family standing beside the grave side of a so loved one.
But losing millions and millions as first reported? Similar to the bird flu of 1917? Maybe the Bat flu?  You was right the first time THIS MAY BE A HOAX! Stand your ground West Coast friend. lol

Yes Phillip, 1776 lives lost is sad. (Interesting number).

However - based data released yesterday of testing here in California - the ratio of the number of people who have had this virus*** to the number of people who have died - now puts this virus as "Less Lethal" than the annual flu. At least in this state.

*** total % of the state's population that test positive for antibodies to Covid 19. Means they had it already, amd recovered. Most never knew they had it.

Oh - and where I live, the "Shelter-in-place" order has been extended till the end of May. Our good friend just lost her job at a large company yesterday. She'd been there for many years. Lots of layoffs starting now. ... all for a virus was hyped to kill, but now we're finding it doesn't. As you point out, the Projections have [now] been proven to be false.

... this is why I smell a Rat! I could be very wrong - but I'm very often right on these things. ...
You cannot permanently help men by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves - Abraham Lincoln

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #141 on: April 29, 2020, 07:15:28 pm »
The comparison of actual figures of deaths from COVID-19 (those tested for and recorded as positive) to estimates of deaths from annual influenza has a fundamental problem.

One is factual, one is an educated guess

The UK is now starting to also count deaths in the tally from facilities where there has been positive detections of the SARS-Cov-2 and no other cause of death. This will potentially catch some some deaths caused by other factors, but common things happen commonly. Influenza is a common disease and its presenting symptoms are non-specific, but the simplest reason is often the correct one.

It will be difficult to compare the two causes of death but as an example for Australia in 2019 there were 298,120 laboratory confirmed cases of influenza, of these 812 died (0.27%). To date for SARS-Cov-2 there have been 6746 confirmed cases, of these 89 died (1.32%).

These figures are actuals not estimates.


Offline Kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #142 on: April 29, 2020, 08:04:38 pm »
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The comparison of actual figures of deaths from COVID-19 (those tested for and recorded as positive) to estimates of deaths from annual influenza has a fundamental problem.

We are doing antibody testing.  The extrapolation of those infected is coming from that testing.  It has been done by a number of groups in a number of places and is coming out about the same.  The extrapolation is putting the death rate on par with the seasonal flu, or close to it.  It is also telling us that in places like California, the virus has been around longer than we knew.  If you go back and look at newspaper articles from before we knew we had this virus here, California was recording a more severe flu season than usual.  In hindsight, they were probably experiencing both the flu and COVID-19.  While they recorded a good number of deaths, the deaths were not so many as to panic the powers that be. 

Unfortunately, it looks like we made decisions based on incomplete info. We treated the entire country as if it was Italy or New York.  That's no ones fault, but as we get better data, we need to adjust our thinking and actions.   
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Online Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #143 on: April 30, 2020, 12:36:25 am »
The last three posters have made some very good points. Things to consider in my opinion.
For this people's heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them.

Offline Skeggley

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #144 on: April 30, 2020, 09:25:48 pm »
Just a quick update from here in the West of Australia. Due to the early imposed lockdowns, border closures and community support restrictions are easing within the state with multiple days of no new cases. It never got near the predicates outcomes and this is put down to the measures enforced. Traffic has picked up as it seems people are starting to filter back to work, myself included. Social gatherings are now restricted to 10 persons, up from 2.
As the days get cooler, coming into winter, bee work reducing ;), our regular flu season will start to kick in and perhaps thanks to our new life style with social distancing and hygienic improvements, this will also be impacted and more lives will be saved.
Now we have to sit back and wait to see how the rest of the world handles the situation before our borders can reopen. Looks like my next holiday won?t be overseas though. :(
Good luck.
 

Offline Kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #145 on: May 01, 2020, 10:33:32 am »
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It never got near the predicates outcomes and this is put down to the measures enforced.

I am glad that things seem to be better there.  You may be lucky, but my fear for most of us is that all we have done is slow down the rate of infection.  People will not understand this and will be angry when folks start getting sick and dying again.

They should have been pounding this to people every day, that is was not about killing off the virus, but about not overwhelming the system.  Because they did not do this, they have left themselves open to blame by people who do not know any better.

One country seems to have done this right and that is Sweden.  Even WHO has come to that conclusion it seems.  Not that I put any faith in WHO!  They have gone from "China did it right" to "Sweden might be the model".   :cheesy:

They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #146 on: May 01, 2020, 06:12:38 pm »
Sweden has universal healthcare

I wouldn?t try to compare it to the US model.

Offline Kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #147 on: May 01, 2020, 06:50:52 pm »
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Sweden has universal healthcare

I don't think that has much to do with the decisions they made other than to make them more cautious about overwhelming the healthcare system.  Same with you guys and the NHS.
 We only had a few places like NYC  and NJ that were really worried about hospitals being overwhelmed and as it turned out, they were not.  Most hospitals are sitting pretty empty because everything other than emergencies is/was shut down. 

That is what flattening the curve was about though.  It was not about defeating the virus.

What is more to the point with Sweden is that they didn't mandate stuff.  They made accommodations for those most at risk, gave guidelines and suggestions, and let people go about their business.  They will get through this much faster and with much less damage than the rest of us hiding in our homes killing our economies. 
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline CoolBees

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #148 on: May 01, 2020, 08:16:36 pm »
... What is more to the point with Sweden is that they didn't mandate stuff.  They made accommodations for those most at risk, gave guidelines and suggestions, and let people go about their business.  They will get through this much faster and with much less damage than the rest of us hiding in our homes killing our economies.

Agreed.
You cannot permanently help men by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves - Abraham Lincoln

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #149 on: May 01, 2020, 08:40:18 pm »

I don't think that has much to do with the decisions they made...

What is more to the point with Sweden is that they didn't mandate stuff.  They made accommodations for those most at risk, gave guidelines and suggestions, and let people go about their business.  They will get through this much faster and with much less damage than the rest of us hiding in our homes killing our economies.

I disagree, the capacity of their healthcare system would absolutely have factored into their decision making regarding lockdowns or not and they did in fact mandate that public gatherings of greater than 500 people were prohibited. This occurred on or about the 11th March.

You can not compare the models, it?s comparing apples with oranges

Offline Skeggley

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #150 on: May 02, 2020, 04:13:36 pm »

One country seems to have done this right and that is Sweden.  Even WHO has come to that conclusion it seems.  Not that I put any faith in WHO!  They have gone from "China did it right" to "Sweden might be the model".   :cheesy:

I cannot see how Sweden can be a positive model when Sweden has reported more than 21,000 confirmed cases, including nearly 2,500 fatalities (12 percent). Its death rate is nearly six times as high as that of Norway (nearly 2.6 percent) and nearly triple that of its other Scandinavian neighbors Finland (nearly 4.2 percent) and Denmark (nearly 4.9 percent).
Overwhelming the healthcare system or not, I?m not sure I?d like to live in a place where there?s a greater than 1 in 10 chance of dying if contracting the virus.... And this is providing there is an immunity once contracted....
So, like I said earlier, now we have to wait and see how other countries deal with the situation before we open up the borders.



Online Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #151 on: May 02, 2020, 04:16:47 pm »
Confirmed cases are of those tested, the real bottom line is deaths per-capita of that country. What does your numbers and percentages show on that?
For this people's heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them.

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #152 on: May 02, 2020, 05:16:15 pm »
Here it is

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Rounding, Sweden 260 deaths per million, USA 198 deaths per million, Finland & Norway both 39 deaths per million.

But these are based on local figures and the differences in reporting & testing make it very hard to compare. Most first world countries could potentially be viewed side by side but it comes down to how many tests have actually been undertaken to determine the true infection and death rates. There are many countries in the list that would not have the capacity to test for it and who?s records of deaths associated with COVID-19 would be dubious at best. Or they could be outright lies or obfuscation.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2020, 05:34:23 pm by Milo »

Offline Kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #153 on: May 02, 2020, 05:28:25 pm »
Here is why I think they did it right.

1. they didn't dictate to their people as if the people where stupid children
2. they did what was needed to protect those most at risk, while leaving the behavior decision of those at risk to them.
3. they did not trash their economy
4.  All of our sheltering will extend the time the virus is around infecting people, Sweden will have achieved herd immunity and they can go on with their lives.


You can't stop a virus unless you can catch it very early, it is not very contagious, and all the stars align.  None of those things are factors with this virus. 
In the end, we will have put far more people at risk with the things we have done than if we had taken some sensible measures to protect the vulnerable (if they wanted to be protected) and the end result in illness and death will be the same. 

Meanwhile, people lose all they have worked for, suicides are up and will go up, drug and alcohol use is up, and we accomplished nothing other than to ruin lives and our economy.

They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Online Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #154 on: May 02, 2020, 05:57:38 pm »
Good job Milo, Being Sweden never shut down its nations economy. Never stopped restaurants, barbers and hair salons, small business, large business, parks, by-way, highways, sidewalks, sidestreets, street-cars, churches etc. and on and on we could go, proves what? Proves Sweden should be a graveyard country that's what. It should be wallering in dead bodies. But instead and thankfully so, It's numbers are closely in line with the nations all over the world, that did shut down everything, that did social distancing, that did devastate their nations economies at the recommendation and direction of leadership of Who, No wonder Mr Trump dropped them off the free money list! Let's not forget, in our own country, opinions are divided.
Proves that the millions and millions of deaths per other countries, as first predicted by the WHO, was a little inaccurate. (And thank goodness). What does this tell us as individuals? I am sure there will be many opinions of this for quite some time. Question: Who is the brains behind WHO, who call the shots at the WHO? Sweden may also prove that China did not lie about their number of deaths? I do not know. But from the very first, I said the numbers, world wide, did not add up. They still do not add up. IMY.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2020, 12:21:49 am by Ben Framed »
For this people's heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them.

Online Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #155 on: May 02, 2020, 05:58:37 pm »
Good job Kathy.
For this people's heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them.

Offline Skeggley

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #156 on: May 02, 2020, 09:24:56 pm »
Fair enough Kathy, I see your reasoning and if all humans were competent and trustworthy I?d agree, unfortunately there are many that aren?t and as much as you do the safe thing for yourself and family the fella standing next to you at the shops may not. I must confess I did not like being told how to live my life by the government though.
Unsure of Sweden?s economy situation however our problem here were imports of which we had no control over.
And, it all hinges on whether immunity is even possible and perhaps we should wait until Sweden?s stats begin to level out before making a call. ;)
As for conspiracy theory?s, I cannot see them being constructive at the moment, now is a time to pull together not splinter apart, there?s time later. The longer it takes to control this virus the longer it will take for us to get back to normal. Worldwide.
 

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #157 on: May 03, 2020, 03:48:21 am »
I think the data shows the polar opposite, their neighbours in close proximity with similar if not identical culture (Nordic) have significantly fewer deaths. Or to look at it a different way Sweden has greater than a 500% increase in deaths.

Now the economic situation is not over and neither is the virus, if their neighbours get the situation under control will they allow border crossings from Sweden? The economic impact to Sweden may only be delayed and it is too early to evaluate.

I personally think that when we place an acceptable number of human deaths in order to earn dollars we lose our humanity. There will be a portion of the population in Sweden that will be thinking ?I wish we were over the border, maybe [insert significant other here] would be alive?. And it’s often a case of “it’s acceptable, as long as it’s not in my backyard”

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #158 on: May 03, 2020, 04:05:08 am »
Also in terms of cost there is the Disability Adjusted Life Year?s (DALY) metric that should be used to calculate the cost to their economy from the disease burden. While I know of the DALY metric, it simply does my head in to read.

Offline incognito

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #159 on: May 03, 2020, 09:56:53 am »

Rounding, Sweden 260 deaths per million, USA 198 deaths per million, Finland & Norway both 39 deaths per million.

You are missing a critical component.
We need to know the portion of the population exposed / infected in order to project the total expected deaths. Sweden may be significantly closer to the end of the pandemic than other countries.

Over 20% of the population of the Bronx, New York have the antigens. Suggesting that that county could be 1/5 of the way through the pandemic. That assumes that having the antigens will prevent reinfection.


Tom