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Author Topic: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'  (Read 598 times)

Offline Ben Framed

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Offline sawdstmakr

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2020, 09:03:16 am »
Good information. Thanks for the heads up.
Jim Altmiller

Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2020, 08:10:48 pm »
It's been found in the US now in WA state.

Most of the time these things are not as bad as the press would like us to believe, but you never know how a virus will mutate once it hits population so it's worth keeping an eye on. 
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline beesNme

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2020, 06:52:13 pm »
It's scary to think how something so small can do so much damage. And seems every year there is a new strain. Zika virus is bad one as well

Offline Acebird

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2020, 09:08:33 am »
The scare is when viruses can effectively transmit from person to person.  Viruses that transmit from animal to human don't pose a big problem (normally) because most animals don't fly.  The exception is this nonsense therapy pets that are allowed on planes.
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Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2020, 11:56:15 am »
Been romping around in news reports on this.  There are a few things that jumped out at me.

This thing has spread much farther and has impacted more people in China than they are reporting.  They have expanded quarantine areas, and clinics and hospitals are already overwhelmed.  It is well out of the country.  By now, there are probably exposed people all over the world so we'll get a good idea of how easily it is spread.

It is true that people panic and want to be seen for any kind of sniffle if there is an outbreak of something, but flooding health care is not the reaction if what is going around is the standard flu or even something like measles. 
This is an information controlled society, yet the people appear to believe that whatever is happening is serious enough to require care. 

I found one report that claims the incubation period is/appears to be, around 14 days.  Making the reasonable assumption that a person would be contagious for a period of time before symptoms, this horse is way out of the barn already.  Checking for fever at airports is not going to help.

Keep track of this. It will be interesting to see how it develops and how our western countries react.
 And I know I have said this before, but no matter what is going on, every one of us should have enough stuff stored to hunker down for at least a couple of weeks.  By the time you know you need to get ready, it is too late. 

They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline CoolBees

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2020, 02:13:45 pm »
... every one of us should have enough stuff stored to hunker down for at least a couple of weeks.  By the time you know you need to get ready, it is too late.

This is always good advice - often forgotten good advice.
You cannot permanently help men by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves - Abraham Lincoln

Offline jvalentour

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2020, 05:30:06 pm »
In 2017 the Journal Nature reported that a high level research lab testing SARS is located in Wuhan.
The Journal reports China has a spotty record of containing virus.

See link:  https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

With the lock down of entire cities, it gives cause to pay attention at least.

Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2020, 06:46:54 pm »
Quote
With the lock down of entire cities, it gives cause to pay attention at least.

I am not fond of that source, but China has a bad history of not being honest until things are so bad they can't hide it. 

As with other places, like Africa, the living conditions and the dietary choices lend themselves to the development and spread of these kinds of diseases.  It can happen anywhere, but they have pretty much the perfect conditions.

Not much to do about it except to realize that they are not honest and read reports with that in mind.
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2020, 11:34:44 am »
Thought I'd drop this as an update.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline Acebird

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2020, 10:01:13 am »
If you don't travel it is not much of a problem.  It spread so fast in China because of their new year celebrations.  China has a militant mind set.  They are good in wars but not good as saving people.  What bothers me is we have become more militant.
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Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2020, 12:03:48 pm »
Quote
What bothers me is we have become more militant.
  IDK, we were born in war   :wink:

A bigger problem for China and one touched on in this video, is that they have a rigid top-down government.  It doesn't allow for much thinking out of the box, or quick action...and God forbid a local governor try to get the word out that something really bad is happening.

We are becoming more top-down and that bothers me.  I don't think we are quite to the China model yet though. 

Everything with this will depend on mutations and easy of person to person spread. We do have protocols to deal with this kind of thing, but pandemic protocols will make everyone very unhappy so I hope we don't get there.

They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline jvalentour

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2020, 10:46:10 am »
In an interesting twist, Indian researchers find artifacts of HIV in the Wuhan virus.
Link attached:  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf
The paper is not peer reviewed but I suppose it will be quickly.
Long read.

Offline Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2020, 04:10:31 pm »
Even another twist, I heard a news report that the Gates family are co-patent holders on this disease. Wish I had copied and pasted here. Has anyone else heard of this?



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« Last Edit: February 01, 2020, 06:43:47 pm by Ben Framed »

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2020, 07:01:08 pm »
In an interesting twist

RNA viruses mutate rapidly which allows especially fast evolution. When two viruses occupy the same cell they can swap genetic material and form new (or evolved) viruses.

The question I would have for this paper is are they implying that it was human intervention (cooked up in a lab - Wuhan Institute of Virology? Currently no basis whatsoever for this, just guff) or are they saying that it was a Group V & Group VI RNA virus merger?

By the way coronavirus are enveloped and are more susceptible to microbicides than non-enveloped viruses, but it doesn?t mean we should drink bleach like some of the crazies are promoting. It just means wipe down surfaces with sodium hypochlorite or quaternary ammonium products.


Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2020, 12:16:41 pm »
This is the kind of stuff I look for. 

Watching for the activation of pandemic protocols will tell us more than watching the news.

https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-approves-more-military-bases-for-wuhan-coronavirus-quarantine-efforts-2020-2
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2020, 12:33:30 pm »
As Jim said in post 1 good information, thanks for the heads up

And update Kathy 

Offline jvalentour

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2020, 12:42:02 pm »
Kathyp, I don't remember quarantine centers for travelers during the SARS and bird flu scares.  I don't remember countries closing their borders with China either, but I'm much older now.   Still, there doesn't seem to be much alarm in my area.  Type A flu is causing schools to close here.

The material resembling HIV in the coronavirus was said to be very common and not unique to HIV.  So until the paper is reviewed or someone else comes up with the same results, there is no proof it's manufactured by the Chinese (or Canadians).

As best as I can tell, mutations of the virus are the biggest concern, in it's current form it is nothing unusual.  But state actors are behaving unusually cautious.

Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2020, 02:22:18 pm »
Quote
As best as I can tell, mutations of the virus are the biggest concern, in it's current form it is nothing unusual.  But state actors are behaving unusually cautious.

It is hard to get accurate info out of China.  It's hard to apply what we do know to other places because the living conditions are so different. 
China is in better shape now than it was with the SARS outbreak, so the fact that they are having the infection and mortality rate they appear to be experiencing is concerning.  This also appears to spread more easily and than SARS or MERS.

I suspect that one of the reasons governments are jumping on this is that they learned a lot from the SARS outbreak.  Better to be overly cautious than miss the window to contain a thing.  Watching what governments do is helpful in predicting where this is going, but not worth a panic yet.

The other thing to watch is the infection rate on things like the cruise ship being held in Japan.  You can make some socio-economic assumptions about cruise ship passengers that we can't make about people in Wohan. 

 
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2020, 10:28:35 pm »
Kathy, I have seen videos there of people simply falling out shaking violently, in the streets, in offices, and hospitals etc. I do not know if these are real or even accurate. Have you seen similar?

Offline Ben Framed

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2020, 11:23:04 pm »
Cancelled Statement 😊
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« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 01:28:57 pm by Ben Framed »

Offline jvalentour

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2020, 09:55:03 am »
Yes, there will be a world wide ripple effect from the virus.  China is shutting down manufacturing in several areas due to the quarantine.  South Korea has already stopped production of some autos due to a shortage of Chinese parts.  Supply of rare earth materials may be an issue very soon.

Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2020, 11:39:01 am »
Quote
Kathy, I have seen videos there of people simply falling out shaking violently, in the streets, in offices, and hospitals etc. I do not know if these are real or even accurate. Have you seen similar?

I have, but nothing like that from outside China.  We can't verify what's coming from inside.

Quote
Yes, there will be a world wide ripple effect from the virus.  China is shutting down manufacturing in several areas due to the quarantine.  South Korea has already stopped production of some autos due to a shortage of Chinese parts.  Supply of rare earth materials may be an issue very soon.

At this moment I think any trade issues will be a blip.  If this gets into other populations that are important to trade, and does as it has done in China, it could be a problem.  India, Vietnam, etc. These are countries with dense populations and a questionable ability to deal with a massive outbreak. 
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville


Offline iddee

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2020, 06:11:46 pm »
I just ordered Apple rechargeable batteries.Most sites are sold out and have no expected date to restock.
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Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2020, 07:38:34 pm »
I hear Apple is moving a bunch of its stuff to Vietnam. 
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline Milo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #26 on: February 15, 2020, 12:44:57 pm »
The move by apple to Vietnam was reported in June last year and was reported as a work around to the tariffs

More importantly the paper that was pre-released has been withdrawn by the authors because the scientific community called it out as junk.

Indian researchers find artifacts of HIV in the Wuhan virus
The paper is not peer reviewed but I suppose it will be quickly.


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v2




Offline salvo

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #27 on: February 15, 2020, 06:57:41 pm »
Salvo

Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #28 on: February 16, 2020, 12:10:38 am »
Quote
I suppose it's time to call in the Marines!

Pandemic plans exist along with plans for other disasters.  The military has its own issues because of deployments.  I don't think we are going to get that far in the US, but it is possible that the military will have to implement some of its plans, especially in other countries. 

Everything depends on how this virus behaves going forward.  Right now it appears to be fairly highly contagious, but not particularly deadly.  A high contagion rate with a lot of quarantines and hospitalizations is disruptive, but if the recovery rate continues to be high, that's a short term problem.  If it mutates and becomes more serious, or if people panic and overwhelm and/or abandon the system, that's when things get fun. 

They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville


Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #30 on: February 17, 2020, 03:24:35 pm »
Quote
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/17/health/evacuated-passengers-test-positive-coronavirus/index.html

This might be an issue.  There seem to be a lot of positives with the new test and the patients are asymptomatic.  They have not nailed down the point at which a positive person is able to spread the virus.  Even more of a problem comes if patients never become symptomatic and are still able to spread the disease. In that case, there is no contact tracing until it is way too late to corral all the contacts. 
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Offline kathyp

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Re: New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'
« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2020, 03:27:36 pm »
If any of you guys follow Michael Yon on FB or his site he's doing good updates from Thailand and other places in that area.  Those countries are worth watching because a lot of people from China escaped and went to Thailand, Singapore, etc. before the gates in China slammed shut. 

We can get a good indicator of spread from what's happening in those other countries. 
They are so divorced from their own interests that even when their own security and that of their children is finally compromised, they do not seek to avert the danger themselves but cross their arms and wait for the nation as a whole to come to their aid. Yet as utterly as they sacrifice their own free will, they are no fonder of obedience than anyone else. They submit, it is true, to the whims of a clerk, but no sooner is force removed than they are glad to defy the law as a defeated enemy. Thus one finds them ever wavering between servitude and license.
Alexis de Tocqueville