K, I didnt read everything, so take it with a grain of salt...
The "felt" or "tar" paper is not for insulation, it is for solar gain. It is the color that makes the difference. Where I live, it often gets COLD.. -55 is not unheard of,but thats not the issue, its those sunny days that are 30 to 35 degrees. A day that my bees would normally NOT be capable of moving because of the cold, but because of the black tar paper, the inside of the hive warms up enough to allow the bees to break cluster, and MOVE to resources.. Maybe its three times in the winter that the tar paper makes a difference, maybe its ten times.. As I see it, if its only three times, then GOOD, thats three times they were able to relocate onto honey that they would normally not have been capable of.
Moisture dripping down on the cluster is what you need to avoid for winter. Moisture anywhere else is fine because they can avoid it. They cant avoid a drip of ice water into the middle of their cluster.. The condensation elsewhere they will actually use, either to dilute their honey or to soften and dilute the sugar or candy board you put on the top bars. So you want a little condensation, just not enough to drip from the top.
THis is how I set up for winter... Hope it helps!
http://www.outyard.net/wintering.html Yes, information overload... Everyone does things a little differently, and to each of us that does his thing differently, well we have to swear by our methods.. but you know what? If our methods didnt work we wouldnt have live bees come spring. So, paying attention to the methods people use, that have similar climates to yours will often net you the best results.. toss out the fringe methods and stick to basic proven methods, then modify those methods to fit how YOU want to keep your bees.
THAT is what its all about.