In my case it depends on location. Since there are no beekeepers in swarming distance of my apiaries, unless it's a feral hive swarming, I can just about rest assured it is coming from my own hives. During swarm season I am vigilant in watching the yards, both empty box colonies left for such a purpose, and tree limbs. These areas are viewed at least once a day. twice if time allows.. It has been my experience when the swarm first leaves the hive, they will not go far during that first flight in most cases.
If I find a swarm on a limb, I retrieve it asap. It has been my further experience the second time they fly from the limb, they will either go into an empty colony in my yard, or they will be gone with the wind.. I'd rather not take the chance. Once I watched a swarn do just that, leave on the second flight, up up and away, never to be seen again..
Just as Jim I have had them collect in my shop garage where boxes were stored without my knowing they had even swarmed, and to my pleasure, find my own marked queen from the season passed. We will know the year of the queen queen, by the color we mark new queens each season..
I expect in Beemaster2s' case there are probably plenty of other bees and beekeepers in his area of Florida? If so they might come to him from any direction...
I realize this did not completely answer your question by it may help, at least a little...
Phillip