Admittedly I have been thinking about buying already mated local queens to add to the splits since its so late to help ensure that they will take, and not have to wait 4 precious weeks to see if it took.
As far as starting nucs, I don' t have much experience with that. I tried that once and it went sideways, they got completely robbed. In retrospect I probably should have put the small nuc in a separate yard away from the strong hives. I'll have to do some research on creating a few small nucs from a larger strong hive. However with this being the end of the season, how well would small nucs fair over winter? I assume the smaller number of bees the more difficult it would be for them to maintain hive temperature during winter especially if some are dying off.
> I have been thinking about buying already mated local queens to add to the splits since its so late to help ensure that they will take
That is what I did as described in reply 1. "you might consider introducing mated queens to your splits in August." "This is just what I did my first year, (bought mated queens). I made 5 splits from one colony in September. And everyone came through winter strong and healthy (but I did things the way to help insure they did). A whole different subject."
> As far as starting nucs, I don't have much experience with that. I tried that once and it went sideways, they got completely robbed.
Timing along with location go hand in hand during late summer and early fall, making strong 5 frame splits is advised for your area. Remember robbing is not the only concern you will have during late splits in your/my area. Don't forget SHB. If possible it is better in my opinion to the have nuc yards away from your main beeyard 'if possible' if you are not in a flow. As you will need to feed which can promote or trigger robbing. I had a fall flow in the September split situation described above. In my case I played the odds and came out of winter with 5 hives in place of the one. Learned this from Michael Palmer.
> However with this being the end of the season, how well would small nucs fair over winter?
Again, I would not make late season nucs any smaller than 5 frames for my area. Your winter weather being as you described, ("Being in VA we occasionally get some cold winters, though the colder temps don't typically hold for long periods of time."), is similar to mine.
Pollen and or pollen sub, when incoming pollen plays out, along with 'slow' fed sucrose, and a 'good queen', will build up brood into November in my area. Strongly!
> I assume the smaller number of bees the more difficult it would be for them to maintain hive temperature during winter especially if some are dying off.
In Spring it is easier to build smaller nucs, time and nature are on your side. During late season stronger splits are 'it'; in my opinion. You need a good fast population buildup "with this being the end of the season". They will only build up what they can nurse and maintain at the time. The stronger the split the better for obvious reasons, especially in late season. Time, resources (whether natural or fed), and a 'good queen'... As stated, you need these splits strong and built up going into winter..