From a commercial point of view i want my bees to thrive rather than survive.
The box is important and our poly hives are the best in hot or cold.
But to me the two things that influence thrive or just survive in winter are the Autumn management and the genetics of the hive.
If you can provide nectar and quality pollen into Autumn and produce alot of young bees, then the hive seems to Winter better.
A strong Autumn hive that the queen shuts down quick will lose bees over Winter as i assume they are all geriatrics by mid Winter. But where we find hives that still have 5 frames of brood in an 8 frame in late Autumn will carry alot of bees through Winter, so the genetic variation of hives comes into play.
As a conradiction to human logic the big bee hives Wintered as doubles do not seen to consume alot of honey, it is the smaller singles that seem to chew throught it. Not enough bees so they eat more to keep warm, I think.
We need strong Wintered hive to go to Almond pollination.