Well did a split about 2 weeks or so ago, last time we had decent weather. Been wet and cold since. Yesterday finally got nice enough that the split hive showed orienting and foraging. Additionally there were a vast number of drones hovering just outside the hive, they did not appear to be orienting. The other hive was bearding it was so busy, but very few drones.
Could this be (there were some swarm cells in the frames I split off and fresh eggs) the drones wanting a virgin queen? The next 2 days, if she is ready, will be good weather.
The one I split from, I never found the queen, so I still expect it to swarm, have traps out all over.