A copy of my letter to Dr. Ellis

[Understudy]

Hi Jamie,

The issue of how much honey a bee makes in it's lifetime reared it's ugly head again. So I decided to do the math. I am requesting that you check the math and my sources.

The primary source is the Australian Honeybee Industry Council
http://www.honeybee.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=60&Itemid=70

The conversion for honey from weight to volume was done at
http://convert-to.com/246/honey-amounts-converter.html

The base of the formula is this 300 bees x 21 days = 450 grams of honey. If that is incorrect the rest does not matter.

Here is what I did.

Bees are diurnal. So at most you would get 12 hours (time of year and latitude not accounted for).

So over 21 days 21(days) x 12(hours of daylight per day) = 252(total daylight hours)

300 (bees) x 252 (hours) = 75600 (bee hours)

450 (grams honey) / 75600 (bee hours) = 0.00595238095... (round up 6 milligrams)
20ml (.au tablespoon) == 28.74 grams of honey

6 mg (honey per hour per bee) x 12 (hours per day) = 72 mg honey per bee per day

Note others came to this calculation at 3ml x24 hours = 72 (pretty neat)

72mg (honey per day) x 400 (days) = 28.8 grams of honey

Let's go a little further.

Bee collects 72 mg of honey per day the average lifespan of a bee is 45 days. It will only spend 1/3 of it's life gathering honey. The first 2/3 is spent in the nest.

.3(foraging percentage) x 45 (days of bee life) = 15 (foraging days at 100% efficiency)

15 (days foraging) x 72mg (honey per day) = 1080mg honey per lifetime

1g (hpl rounded ) = .05 .au tablespoon = 1/20 .au tablespoon

Please note a US tablespoon is 15ml but all the convert sites base it on a 20ml teaspoon which is fine by me.

So a bee can gather in weight 1 gram of honey and that is equal in volume to 1/20 of a tablespoon of honey.

Please correct as needed.

Sincerely,
Brendhan

[indypartridge]

So a bee can gather in weight 1 gram of honey and that is equal in volume to 1/20 of a tablespoon of honey.

Okay, so the number I've always seen thrown around is 1/12 teaspoon per lifetime.

So, if we convert your 1/20 tablespoon (0.05) to teaspoon we have 0.15 teaspoon, which not quite double 1/12 (0.083).

Interesting numbers.

[Understudy]

So a bee can gather in weight 1 gram of honey and that is equal in volume to 1/20 of a tablespoon of honey.

Okay, so the number I've always seen thrown around is 1/12 teaspoon per lifetime.

So, if we convert your 1/20 tablespoon (0.05) to teaspoon we have 0.15 teaspoon, which not quite double 1/12 (0.083).

Interesting numbers.

I had been in this discussion with a beekeeper in .au. So we did it based on his setup. It also made the math a lot easier. I have since learned that a lot of countries use the 20ml tablespoon(note the UK falls somewhere in between at 17ml, but it was easier to round up). So I decided I would do that because it would work more countries then just the US.

Another beekeeper here in the US with myself, did some calculations afterward on how much honey a bee gathers in it's lifetime in comparison to it's weight over it's lifetime. We discovered that since a bee weighs about 1/10 of a gram the bee gathers ten almost 11 times it's weight in it's lifetime. That would be like me making 40lbs of food everyday.

If a bee collects a gram of honey in it's lifetime a 1lb jar of honey is the results of 454 bees(no partial bees) (at 100% efficacy and solely into storage)
1lb honey = 453.59 grams

We did some calculations based on labor also. Basically if the bee made $8/hr a 1lb jar of honey would be worth $653,169.60

The basics of this was a lot of fun and a great diversion. In order for the calculation to be correct the base measurement has to be correct.

300 bees x 21 days = 450 grams of honey

I need to validate that formula to be sure the rest is correct. I need also to know that is a base average for honey not just .au bees. That is why I sent a copy to Dr. Ellis. I will probably also send a copy to Dr. Buchmann because he is the one who help coin the phrase 1/3 of everything we eat is do to pollination.

Sincerely,
Brendhan

[JP]

I always said as bee keepers we are definitely not charging enough for our honey!  ;)


...JP

[AllenF]

Amen.

[Tommyt]

1lb jar of honey would be worth $653,169.60

I am having a 50% off sale this week only call now before we run out............

 :-D
Tommyt

btw
Jamie Ellis very nice guy

[Understudy]

Here is my reply from Dr. Ellis

Brendhan,

So, your math looks good. Just some comments (that may be impossible to handle in the formula).

 First, your calculation would be the MOST POSSIBLE amount of honey made by a bee, right? A bee doesn’t work the full 12 hours, even if it is daylight. There are periods of rest and some times when the bees are not in the field. You could have arrived at the amount of honey made by a bee per day with your original formula (300 bees x 21 days = 450 grams of honey). 300 bees/450 grams of honey = 1.5 g honey/bee per 21 day period. Divide 1.5 g by 21 days and you get ~71.4 mg honey per bee per day. Of course, as you state all of your math is contingent on the formula above.

 Looks good otherwise. I would love to know where the Australians got their 300 bees 3 weeks 450 grams of honey formula though!

How’s progress on the little one? Here already? We’re due in 1 week……

Jamie

Jamie Ellis, PhD

[hankdog1]

You might want to look at a copy of The Hive and the Honey Bee.  I am pretty sure that's where I came across this number.  But the argument a bee is busy is a bit of a lie.  Correct me if I'm wrong on the number but if I remember she spends 60% of her life resting.  Don't know where you would find the numbers for doing work as nurse bee and the other duties. 

Shew I am really starting to wonder if beekeepers have a love for math.  Earlier in the year found myself figuring out how many almond trees were being pollinated by reebee's bees.  Even broke it down to how many flowers based on averages per tree. 

He came to the same conclusion as JP.  He needed to charge by the flower lol.

[Lone]

Hello,

I would love to know where the Australians got their 300 bees 3 weeks 450 grams of honey formula though

I would love to know, too.  My 20 000 bees have hardly been able to produce 450gm in 12 months.

There are two more questions.
1. Doesn't the amount of honey produced depend very much on the quality and quantity of nectar available? Do not bees vary in their ability and focus? Are you calculating, as Dr Ellis says, "the most possible"?
2. How do you total the amount produced unless you know how much the bees are consuming too?  Do you know how much a bee/brood eats to add that to your total amount?

That brings me to another mathematical question: How on Earth do you count bees??


20 000 divided by 300 = 66.6   66.6 x 450gm = 30 000gm  52 weeks divided by 3 = 17.3
 17.3 x 30 000 = 519 000 gm  = 519kg  519 - (amount bee consumes in a year x 20 000) = amount of honey I should have.

If you examine these sites, you will discover that New Zealand bees are actually 12 times as productive as other bees that only produce 1/12 th of a teaspoon of honey in a lifetime. 

http://www.nzhealthnaturally.com/honey
http://www.biotechlearn.org.nz/focus_stories/honey_to_heal/did_you_know/bee_productivity

Lone

[Understudy]

Hello,

I would love to know where the Australians got their 300 bees 3 weeks 450 grams of honey formula though

I would love to know, too.  My 20 000 bees have hardly been able to produce 450gm in 12 months.

There are two more questions.
1. Doesn't the amount of honey produced depend very much on the quality and quantity of nectar available? Do not bees vary in their ability and focus? Are you calculating, as Dr Ellis says, "the most possible"?

Yes, I was doing the calculations based on 100% efficiency. In my reply to Dr. Ellis I asked him about what percentage would be a better percentage to calculate with. The amount of nectar, the distance from the hive, are some of the factors to be considered. Bees do vary in their ability and focus which would be a factor in the efficiency.

2. How do you total the amount produced unless you know how much the bees are consuming too?  Do you know how much a bee/brood eats to add that to your total amount?

Those would be factors in making a percentage for the efficiency. The question that tends to fall apart if the base calculation is correct is that a bee collects 1/12 of a teaspoon of honey it's lifetime. That is where I am going with this.

That brings me to another mathematical question: How on Earth do you count bees??

There are several things that are done to count bees.
1. They will gas the hive at night killing all the bees and someone counts them. It destroys the hive but it gives a very accurate number. Note they will also gas the hive during the day and leave a box for foragers. This helps show the number of bees in the hive and the percentage that forages.

2. They will count the number of bees that fly in and out of a hive over a given period of time. Say an hour. This will give you a count on the number of foragers. The foragers represent around 1/3 of the hive population. You do this with thousands of hives over different times of the day and different times of the year.

3. They will count the brood. Understanding that the percentage of survival is not 100% plus the average lifetime of the honey bee will help. This will also help show the rate of growth on a hive.

There are other methods and they will use not just one of these but all of these and others to come to a accurate representation as to the number of bees in a hive or a swarm. Counting cells in a frame of comb, then counting the number of eggs. help understand the number of bees, how many eggs a queen lays. There are a few cheats if you use foundation you have a number of cells that will usually exist on a frame. You have a knowledge that the queen will only lay in a percentage of those cells. Even if all of the comb is drawn (Very often the corners are not used). So you can then say within a 3inch by 3inch space you have x number of cells. This will produce this much brood every 21 days. If you have 30 of these 3x3 spaces and the queen can lay in all those cells in one day then you know what you population will be in 21 days. Now these are just examples. The way to be more accurate is do studies like this not just on one hive but thousands over and over. 

20 000 divided by 300 = 66.6   66.6 x 450gm = 30 000gm  52 weeks divided by 3 = 17.3
 17.3 x 30 000 = 519 000 gm  = 519kg  519 - (amount bee consumes in a year x 20 000) = amount of honey I should have.

I would like to understand your formula a little better here. The 20,000 / 300 = 66.6 is correct but what do the numbers represent?
I am wondering if you don't mean 300/20000 = .015.

If you examine these sites, you will discover that New Zealand bees are actually 12 times as productive as other bees that only produce 1/12 th of a teaspoon of honey in a lifetime. 

http://www.nzhealthnaturally.com/honey
http://www.biotechlearn.org.nz/focus_stories/honey_to_heal/did_you_know/bee_productivity

Lone

This is actually part of the fun. I have emails to the Australian Honeybee Council and now to the Biotech Learning Hub as to what were the sources for their statements. I fear that the answers may be somewhat less then scientific but that is going to mean that the information needs to be updated and confirmed. How cool would that be. Also I suspect that the amount of honey a hive collects would be highly affected by the region. However the amount of honey a bee can carry inside itself should be pretty accurate. If the original formula holds up a bee collecting 1 gram of honey is accurate(perhaps for .au bees). That does not mean it all ends up in the comb.

Thank you very much.

Sincerely,
Brendhan

[Lone]

Hello Brendhan,

Thanks for your reply.  The investigation you are doing is very interesting. 
I am not very good at mathematics at all.  My brother is a reader in mathematics at a university and I think he took all the smart genes first.  I am very likely to have made slip ups.
 What I meant by 20000/300 is that your formula is for 300 bees.  If I have, say, 20 000 bees which is purely a guess at a small average hive, that is 66.6 times 300.  So then I should theoretically get 66.6 times as much honey in 3 weeks (30kg). I just extended that to a year.  However, I didn't take into account that the 300 are all foragers, and if as you say that represents 1/3 of a hive, then you'd have to divide everything by 3.  I still can't see any hive making that much extra honey (173kg minus what bees consume). What other factors are missing?

Lone

[Understudy]

Hello Brendhan,

Thanks for your reply.  The investigation you are doing is very interesting. 
I am not very good at mathematics at all.  My brother is a reader in mathematics at a university and I think he took all the smart genes first.  I am very likely to have made slip ups.
 What I meant by 20000/300 is that your formula is for 300 bees.  If I have, say, 20 000 bees which is purely a guess at a small average hive, that is 66.6 times 300.  So then I should theoretically get 66.6 times as much honey in 3 weeks (30kg). I just extended that to a year.  However, I didn't take into account that the 300 are all foragers, and if as you say that represents 1/3 of a hive, then you'd have to divide everything by 3.  I still can't see any hive making that much extra honey (173kg minus what bees consume). What other factors are missing?

Lone

Ahh thank you. Let me see f I can help with this.

20000 (bees population for hive) x .33333 (1/3 are foragers) = 6667 (bees that forage)
Each bee gathers 72mg of honey (nectar for those that want to split hairs) per day
72mg (honey per bee per day)(0.072) x 6667 = 480.024g  of honey per day by the foragers at 100% efficiency. 
That is a little over 1lb (US) per day.

Here is where I will assume. if 300 bees can produce 450 grams of surplus honey in 21 days that would do this.

480 grams (honey per day) x 21 (days) = 10080 grams of honey in 21 days

10080 g (6667 foraging bees total collection over 21 days) - 450g (surplus honey over 21 days) = 9630g (honey consumed by 20000 bees over 21 days) )

9630g (honey consumed by 20000 bees in hive over 21 days)  / 21 (days) = 459.571g (grams of honey consumed by 20000 bees in hive per day)

So now we have some fun.

480g (honey per day) - 460g (honey consumed per day) = 20g surplus honey
Basically the bees consume 95.8333% of the honey brought into a hive each day

460g (honey consumed per day) / 20000 (bees in hive) = 23mg (amount of honey eaten per bee evenly distributed which it is not)
Which means a bee eats a little over twice it's weight per day. ( I would not hang my hat on that but it is possible)

Remember these numbers don't account for an actual efficiency rate or the uneven distribution of honey. What I will say is that by far the majority of nectar on a day to day basis is consumed by the hive and does not go into storage.   

Sincerely,
Brendhan

[JP]

Based on my experience doing removals I would say that 1/3 are foragers is wayyyyyy off base. I know you have done quite a many removals as well Brendhan and have seen the build up of foragers coming back to a hive you are removing.

So hypothetically if that number were correct if you were to seal the entrance of a hive that had 60,000 bees there would be 20,000 bees trying to get back in give or take ones that haven't left the hive yet.

I just can't see how this number is even close to being accurate.

I don't have statistics to support what I'm saying just field experience. I would guess that foragers make up somewhere near 2-5% at best.


...JP

[Understudy]

Based on my experience doing removals I would say that 1/3 are foragers is wayyyyyy off base. I know you have done quite a many removals as well Brendhan and have seen the build up of foragers coming back to a hive you are removing.

So hypothetically if that number were correct if you were to seal the entrance of a hive that had 60,000 bees there would be 20,000 bees trying to get back in give or take ones that haven't left the hive yet.

I just can't see how this number is even close to being accurate.

I don't have statistics to support what I'm saying just field experience. I would guess that foragers make up somewhere near 2-5% at best.


...JP

Hey JP,

You bring up a good point on the 1/3 amount. The number is based on the aspect that the first 30 days or so of a bees life is generally spent in the hive, taking care of the queen, feeding larva, building or repairing comb, guard duty, or items such as that. So the number is based on the general tasks that are performed by bees that in many cases is dependent on the age of the bee. Also the hive can lower or raise that number based on need meaning bees could become foragers earlier in their life if the hive needs them to be or stay as nurse bees longer depending on the needs of the hive. I would say this when I have done the slider board queen rearing and you force the foragers into a separate box, and you look at them at the end of the day. Plus what I have seen gather outside of a home after the entrance has been sealed. I would think (opinion only ) that percentage is higher then 2%-5%. However, I have sneaking suspicion that if the numbers are really delved into that the reality is very different.   

This is an example of what happens when a hive entrance is to small and the bees have a good flow going.
http://beebarf.imgur.com/5067_brian_blvd

I have also learned that bees may not return the same day. As the customer calls a day or two later saying there is this clump of bees on the outside of my house. So I will agree 1/3 is probably not accurate I am also going to say that 1/20 (5%) is not accurate. I suspect the number falls somewhere in between. And I am sure there are a lot of other factors to take into account with that.

Thank you for making me think.

Sincerely,
Brendhan

[JP]

I will agree with you that there are many variables at play here but still sticking to what I have seen to be true for me. Heck, one of these differences could simply be the type of bees I have in my area compared to what you have in yours.

PLease keep us in the loop about the new little one. I know y'all have to be getting quite close.


...JP